Intergenerational Son Preference as a Warning Sign of a Worsening Demographic Crisis in Countries with Sustained Low Fertility Rates

Amid a demographic crisis driven by sustained low fertility across much of Asia, it is crucial to investigate whether intergenerational son preference persists and how it shapes fertility intentions in societies with strong traditions favoring sons. Understanding this dynamic is essential for anticipating future demographic challenges and informing more effective policy interventions that address underlying cultural and social norms.

To examine this issue, we conducted a study in Vietnam using the latest national dataset, the Vietnam Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 2020–21), which includes 7,813 women from Generations X, Y, and Z. Employing survival analysis—an approach not previously applied in this context—we assessed intergenerational shifts in son preference by analyzing how the sex of the first child affects both the likelihood and timing of subsequent births.

Our findings show that son preference remains prevalent, with Generation Z displaying a stronger tendency toward having sons than Generations X and Y, despite Vietnam’s economic advancement and policy measures aimed at reducing gender imbalance. This persistence suggests that deeply ingrained institutional and cultural norms continue to reinforce the preference for male offspring, often compelling women to have additional children until a son is born, based on the perception that sons secure better social and economic outcomes.

These patterns raise serious concerns about the potential for a future demographic crisis in Vietnam and in other countries with both low fertility and entrenched son preference. Such contexts risk replicating China’s trajectory of gender imbalance and severe female population shortages—even without restrictive fertility policies—due to the combined effects of declining family size and a persistent preference for sons. The evidence highlights an urgent need for targeted policy responses to challenge cultural son preference, especially in the context of Vietnam’s ongoing fertility decline.

Further reading:

Nguyen, Y. T. H., Dang, T. N. H., Sukontamarn, P., Lai, S.-L., & Pechdin, W. (2025). Sex of First Child and Actual Fertility Among Vietnamese Women from Generations X, Y, and Z: Examining Intergenerational Patterns of Son Preference. Journal of Population and Social Studies [JPSS], 34, 327–343. retrieved from https://so03.tci-thaijo.org/index.php/jpss/article/view/285921